rnrmarketresearch / Peru-Shipping-Industry-Market-Report-Q4-2012

BMI maintains it’s below consensus 4.8% real GDP forecast for Peru. The country’s strong domestic demand story will continue in 2012, although we expect a drag from net exports. Significant external risks to the economy means we cannot rule out a more pronounced slowdown in growth in the latter stages of the year, on the back of weaker global demand for the country’s minerals and moderating global commodity prices.The expected slowdown in the Chinese economy will drag on the country’s exports, putting some downside pressure on volumes, particularly at dry bulkhandling ports. That said, we believe President Ollanta Humala is likely to implement pro-growth policies which will translate into stronger public consumption, which should in turn result in stronger demand for imports of containerised goods, boosting port volumes and supporting our positive outlook for the Peruvian port sector.